Analysis on High-end Bus Market in First Half of 2013 (I)_data analyst

Analysis on High-end Bus Market in First Half of 2013 (I)
12 July 2013

www.chinabuses.org: I. Market overview: dropping of general growth rate and fluctuation status

The latest data shows in the first half of 2013, sales of high-end buses worthy of CNY 0.9 million reached 1524 units, increasing by 3.81% of 56 units over the same period in 2012, while the growth rate declined by 2.95% than that of 6.76% in 2012. High-end bus market, like the entire one, encounters with influences from various factors. The details are as follows:

	Jan.	Feb.	March	April	May	June	Total
2013	301	289	220	211	256	247	1524
2012	288	313	174	200	241	252	1468
Y-O-Y Rise%	4.5	-7.67	26.4	5.5	6.2	-1.98	3.81

From the above we can see that overall growth rate in the first half of 2013 reached 3.81%, including two-month minus and four-month plus. The max dropping in February and max rising in March shows the unstable fluctuation of the market.

II. Analysis on the sales of luxury buses in the first half of 2007-2013, the growth of buses worth CNY 0.9-1.5 million resembled that of CNY 1.5-2 million, while sales of CNY 2 million ones declined.

Sales of over CNY 0.9 million Buses within 8 Years

Year	Jan.-Dec. 2007	Jan.-Dec. 2008	Jan.-Dec. 2009	Jan.-Dec. 2010	Jan.-Dec. 2011	Jan.-Dec. 2012	Jan.-June 2013
Units	2086	2336	2431	2889	3176	3332
Year	Jan.-June 2007	Jan.-June 2008	Jan.-June 2009	Jan.-June 2010	Jan.-June 2011	Jan.-June 2012	Jan.-June 2013
Units	1048	1104	867	1298	1375	1468	1524

Year-on-year Growth within 7 Years

Year	Jan.-Dec. 2007	Jan.-Dec. 2008	Jan.-Dec. 2009	Jan.-Dec. 2010	Jan.-Dec. 2011	Jan.-Dec. 2012	Jan.-Dec. 2013
Growth%	12.3	5.34	-21.47	49.71	5.93	6.76	3.81

From the above we can see that

The seven years sees the growth of buses worthy of over CNY 0.9 million from 2086 units to 3332 units, 2086 units in 2007, 2336 units in 2008, 2889 units in 2010 and 3176 units in 2011. Except the year-on-year decrease in 2009 due to the economic crisis, other years lived up to the growth rule.

The max increase occurred in 2010, then 2007 and 2012. Negative increase was attributed to economic crisis in 2009 and growth slowed down in 2013.

Sales of High-end Buses within 6 Years

Price	CNY 0.9-1.5 million
Year	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Units	573	453	651	711	689	704
Price	CNY 1.5-2 million
Year	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Units	309	226	358	389	478	466
Price	over CNY 2 million
Year	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Units	222	188	289	275	301	354

From the above we can see that:

We segment the market into three sections with prices of CNY 0.9-1.5 million, CNY 1.5-2 million and over CNY 2 million.

During the seven years, sales of buses worthy of CNY 0.9-1.5 million decreased in 2009 and 2012. The sales increased the most in 2010.

Growth of CNY 0.9-1.5 million Buses within 6 Years

Year	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Increment	16	-120	198	60	-22	15
Rate%	2.87	-26.49	43.71	9.2	-3.1	2.18

Growth of CNY 1.5-2 million Buses within 6 Years

Year	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Increment	51	-83	132	31	89	-12
Rate%	19.76	-26.2	58.4	8.66	22.9	-2.5

As the falling tendency from 2008 to 2009 we can see, sales in Jan.-June 2009 decreased by 26.2% year on year, i.e. 83 units, while year-on-year growth rose 58.4% in 2010, 8.66% in 2011, 22.9% in 2012 and -2.5% in 2013. What's more, 13.7m super large bus is non-mainstream product.

Growth of over CNY 2 million Buses within 6 Years

Year	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Increment	-11	-34	101	-14	26	53
Rate%	-4.7	-15.3	53.7	-4.84	9.5%	17.6

From the above we can see that different from the other two sections, the over CNY 2 million one encountered with the fluctuation, down in 2008 and 2009, up in 2010, down again in 2011 and up again in 2012 and 2013, which shows the great impact of national macro policy to this section.

Source : www.chinabuses.org

Editor : Song

Analysis on High-end Bus Market in First Half of 2013 (I)12 July 2013

Analysis on High-end Bus Market in First Half of 2013 (I)
12 July 2013